TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – Nov 27


United States

• A strong dollar and falling energy prices continued to keep a lid on CPI inflation. Headline CPI rose by 0.2% year-over-year – an improvement from the -0.2% print in September. Meanwhile, core inflation remained steady at 1.9%.

• Housing starts posted their largest monthly decline since February, falling by 11% to 1.06 million units annualized. The weakness was firmly concentrated in the volatile multi-unit sector in which starts fell by25%. Single-unit starts held up for firmly, falling by just 2.4%.

• The minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated that some participants were already prepared to raise rates in October with most expecting to be comfortable to do so by mid-December. This aligns with our view that the rate lift-off will occur at the December 16th meeting.


• Canadian manufacturing sales fell 1.5% in September, while retail sales slid 0.5%. This suggests thatmomentum in the Canadian economy is slowing and the handoff to the fourth quarter will be soft.

• Existing home sales rose 1.8% in October, bringing sales back to the peak reached earlier this year. The story is quite regional, with Ontario and B.C. leading the way.

• Headline inflation remained at 1.0% y/y in October, while core inflation was unchanged at 2.1% y/y.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446