TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – Nov 30


United States

• Markets were relatively quiet in a holiday-shortened week, but economists nonetheless had fresh data to sift through. Overall, it was a bit of a mixed bag that contained some good news, tempered by some that was a bit disappointing.

• Third quarter economic growth was revised up to 2.1% annualized. And, the economy looked even stronger when activity was measured using income. On the other hand, data on existing home sales and personal spending suggest Q4 didn’t get off to a very strong start.

• However, as far as Q4 is concerned, we could still be thankful for a positive durable goods orders report, which suggested that business investment might be starting to turn the corner after a choppy 2015 thus far. Better yet, October’s income growth and new home sales, as well as initial jobless claims for the weekprior all exhibited marked improvement.



• This week’s data underscored our view that economic momentum will fade heading into the final quarterof the year. The economic challenges posed by a low oil price environment will likely keep the Bank of Canada on hold, at least until mid-2017.

• The Ontario and Quebec governments may have the additional financial wiggle-room to absorb the dragon revenues from a weaker-than-expected economic backdrop, while still staying on track to balance
their budgets as planned. The federal government, in contrast, is not expecting to balance its budget until
2019-20 – almost four years later than was outlined it its 2015 Budget.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446