TD / Canada Trust Economic Highlights – April 7


United States

  • The highlight of this week was the highly-anticipated jobs report. The U.S. economy added an estimated 192k jobs in March, following an upwardly revised 197k in February. Evidence of a post-polar-vortex rebound in the labor market was provided by a strong bounce back in average hours worked, which had fallen to a three year low in February.
  • The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7% as strong labor force growth outpaced the increase in household survey employment. The rebound in labor force participation suggests that we have reached a point in the job cycle that is pulling workers back into the job search.
  • For investors, this was a goldilocks job report, signaling that the job recovery is still very much in tact, but not in a way that will bring forward the Fed’s hand in raising interest rates.


  • Three key pieces of data over the past week have provided reassurance that the Canadian economy has shaken off its winter setback. Growth for Q1 as a whole is tracking a sub-par 1 ½%, but the economy is expected to rebound back above its 2% potential growth rate in Q2.
  • February’s trade data increased after a decline in January, and pushed the trade balance back into surplus for the first time in five months. .
  • Last but not least, Canada’s economy generated a healthy 43K net new jobs in March, and the unemploy­ment rate ticked down to 6.9%. On a trend basis, hiring is picking up from its earlier slump. However, the economy is not yet firing on all cylinders, and a down tick in wage inflation in March served as a reminder that slack remains in Canada’s economy.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area
TD Canada Trust T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446

[email protected]