TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – Dec. 8


United States

  • The good U.S. data keeps on rolling in, suggesting the American economy is gaining momentum and shrugging off the weakness in the rest of the world. November employment report showed U.S. payrolls expanding by 321k, the fastest pace since January 2012. Revisions added another 44k to payrolls.
  • Strength was also evident in ISM indexes, which beat expectations and point to continued economic momentum in the fourth quarter of the year.
  • With the spate of positive news, the data-dependent Federal Reserve’s first move to normalize policy can no longer be considered a “considerable time” away. The probability of a rate hike in the first half of next year has increased measurably. Look for the dollar to keep on moving up.


  • As widely expected, the Bank of Canada left the overnight rate unchanged at 1.00% this week.
  • Canada’s trade surplus narrowed in October, driven by weaker demand for exports. In volume terms, exports were down 1.5% while imports were down 0.2%.
  • Employment fell by 10,700 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate edged up to 6.6%. This fol­lows two consecutive months of robust job creation, with the 6-month moving average sitting at 21,300 positions per month.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5442