TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – January 9


United States
• The first week of the year brought a flurry of economic reports and data. Overall, the data paint a picture
of ongoing economic progress with signs of building momentum, especially in sectors such as manufacturing
that had previously been laggards.
• The minutes from the FOMC’s December meeting projected confidence in the state of the economic recovery,
but also expressed concern over the future course of fiscal policy, which remains highly uncertain.
• America generated 153k jobs in December, slightly less than expected. Any disappointment was offset
by a jump in wage growth (+0.4% month on month and +2.9% year on year). This is yet another sign that
the labor market continues to make progress.

• This week’s Canadian economic data puts real GDP on track to grow by 2.2% annualized in the fourth
quarter of 2016, bang on the expectations laid out in our last quarterly economic update in early December
but higher than the Bank of Canada’s 1.5% estimate. Still underlying momentum remains soft and will
likely keep the central bank on the sidelines through this year and next.
• Exports rose strongly in November, bouncing back from the lull hit earlier on in the year. While metallic
and non-metal minerals led November’s gains, energy exports have been steady contributors to growth
through since mid-2016.
• The labour market ended the year on a positive note, adding 54,000 jobs in December, most of which
were in full-time positions. Yet, job growth for 2016 as a whole was soft and the unemployment rate held
near-7% for most of the year. With cooler housing market activity likely to take some steam out of job
growth going forward, the unemployment rate is unlikely to budge from its current level in 2017.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446