TD/Canada Trust Economic Highlights – Jul 3


           United States

  • The long-running standoff between creditors and the Greek government continued this week. Talks will spill over into the weekend as the negotiating parties attempt to reach an 11th hour agreement to extend the bailout agreement and unlock funding Greece needs to pay the IMF and its pensioners on Tuesday.

  • In light of the bleak alternatives we expect progress will be made, but given the wide gaps between ne­gotiating parties and even within the Greek parliament a less favorable outcome cannot be ruled out.

  • U.S. economic data was largely upbeat this week, with the first-quarter contraction revised to just 0.2% annualized while May PCE figures suggested that the American consumer was back in a buying mood.

  • The buying mood extended to the housing market, with both existing home sales and new home sales setting multi-year records last month.


  • The CFIB Small Business Barometer fell in June, but there were some sectors – notably retail and manu­facturing – that showed business optimism beginning to return.

  • The environment for manufacturers will become more favourable in the coming months, as the U.S. economy continues to pick up some steam and the loonie hovers around the 80 US cent mark.

  • These conditions will also help the Canadian economy transition toward the much-anticipated export-driven growth. Several manufacturing industries are poised for solid export growth, as well as some other non-energy industries. Meanwhile, energy exports will decelerate from the robust pace seen at the start of the year, but should hold up relatively well.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446