TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – July 25


United States
• Market sentiment continued to improve this week as worries over Turkish contagion waned, while markets
remained resilient in the face of Brexit while counting on central bank stimulus in the coming weeks.
• Advance PMIs suggest that the U.K. economy is contracting in July, but the activity in the Eurozone has
held up better than expected thus far.
• U.S. data continues to prove constructive with two housing reports this week painting a picture of a
continuing housing market recovery. Alongside low initial jobless claims, the data suggests the domestic
economy remains resilient and may be able to handle a rate hike. Should domestic data continue to come
in robust and financial markets remain calm, we expect the Fed may raise rates as early as December.

• Data releases this week continued to point to a weak economic, but stable inflation backdrop in Canada,
with the Canadian economy firing on just one engine – housing.
• Retail spending rose 0.2% in May, putting consumer spending on track for a modest 1.5% annualized
gain as households are holding back from ramping up spending even with sharply rising housing wealth.
• Consumer prices rose 1.5% year-over-year in June, with the Bank of Canada’s core measure holding
steady at 2.1% y/y.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446