TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – June 14


United States
• International events overshadowed domestic developments this week. Data on job openings and the
non-manufacturing sector confirmed last Friday’s payroll report of slowing job growth, something that is
to be expected at this point in the cycle.
• The ECB kept its monetary policy broadly unchanged, tilting its forward guidance slightly hawkish given
the strong economic performance. However, downward revisions to its inflation forecasts suggests that
the ECB is unlikely to join the Fed in tightening monetary policy anytime soon.
• The UK election has charged a shaky Conservative coalition government with negotiating Brexit. Although
the election result serves to weaken the UK’s negotiating hand, it increases the likelihood that the UK
maintains ties with the EU, favoring an arrangement similar to that between Norway and the EU.

• It was a relatively busy week in Canadian markets, with the loonie stumbling on the oil price drop midweek,
before regaining some poise on robust economic data.
• Employment surged in May, with the economy adding 54.5 thousand jobs during the month. The gains
were quite broad and all in full-time positions. Wages and hours remained weak but improved from previous
• Housing data pointed to resilience across most Canadian markets and a welcome cool-off in new and
existing activity in Ontario. The Bank of Canada’s June FSR highlighted a growing concern about both
household indebtedness and housing market imbalances, with a sharp correction in home prices in overheated
markets flagged as a key risk for financial stability.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446