TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – June 26


United States
• Equity markets started off the week on a positive note. But the advance proved transitory as oil prices slid
into bear territory, sending energy stocks and the main indices lower.
• With little in the way of economic data, Fed speeches took center stage. While echoing support for last
week’s decision, some Fed speakers appeared to take on a more dovish tone, with Harker and Evans
putting an emphasis on waiting for further proof to hike again.
• The only significant economic data releases this week pertained to housing activity. Existing home sales
surprised on the upside. Meanwhile,sales in the smaller and more volatile new home market, also rebounded
in May.

• For those trying to time the next Bank of Canada rate, this week’s economic data brought mixed signals
with inflation easing for a fifth straight month and momentum retail spending holding strong into the second
quarter of the year.
• While soft inflation is likely to keep the Bank of Canada on hold through July, the pick-up in economic
momentum offers good grounds for an October rate hike. Inflation is a lagging indicator, and May’s reading
likely reflects soft economic conditions from late 2015 to early 2016. But inflation may be nearing a
trough, as slack is being eaten up at a quickened pace.

For further information, please contact:
John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446
[email protected]