TD / Canada Trust Economic Highlights – Mar 31


United States

  • Soft data out of China to start the week renewed concerns over a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy. However, this was not enough to dent the positive mood in emerging market equities, which rose for five days straight.
  • In the U.S., the third reading on Q4 real GDP revised growth upwards to 2.6%, based on a sharp improve­ment in consumer spending.
  • Otherwise, weak core capital goods shipments, soft new and pending home sales, as well as a downward revision to consumer spending in January, point to a weak first quarter for growth. Nonetheless, consumer confidence rose to new heights, reinforcing our expectation for a strong rebound in economic activity in Q2.


  • In the absence of top tier data releases this week, equity markets struggled to gain traction, with the S&P/ TSX shedding 0.7%. In contrast, the Canadian dollar did an about face from last week’s significant decline and rebounded back to the 90 U.S. cent level.
  • The transition to export-oriented growth is underway, but don’t count the housing market out just yet. News of a further announced cut in the 5-year mortgage rate served as a reminder that the low interest rate environment remains in full force.
  • After a quiet week, the plate of Canadian economic data will be full next week. January’s GDP and Febru­ary’s international trade releases should reveal gains that only partially offset losses recorded in the prior month. The Labour Force Survey will also be released on Friday.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area
TD Canada Trust T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446

[email protected]