TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – March 13


United States
• Markets continued to price in lofty odds for a Fed hike next week, putting further upward pressure on the
2 year treasury yield – which remained near a nine-year high. The U.S. dollar also remained relatively
well supported up 0.2% on the week. Meanwhile, equity markets took somewhat of a breather, but the
S&P500 only ended the week 0.5% lower.
• There were few domestic data to sift through this week, until today’s highly-anticipated jobs report. The
labor market added 235k jobs on the month, with some upward revisions to the prior month. Alongside a
decline in the jobless rate, these developments have further cemented the case for a rate hike next week.
• With a March hike highly-expected at this point, markets are turning attention to what is in pipeline from
the Fed. Three hikes this year, alongside global central banks that remain in highly-accommodative mode
should continue to support the U.S. dollar and act as a weight on economic growth. Nonetheless, we
expect economic growth to remain resilient supported by continued domestic strength.

• Crude oil prices slipped below the US$50 per barrel mark this week for the first time since the end of
November when OPEC countries agreed on production targets.
• Export volumes were up by a solid 1% in January, but were outpaced by a 2.5% increase in imports.
• Housing starts hit 210k units in February, bringing the 6-month moving average to 205k units – the highest
level seen since November 2015.
• This morning’s employment report showed a net 15k jobs were created in February, with over 100k new
full-time positions added. The unemployment rate edged down by 0.2 ppts to 6.6%.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446