TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – May 4


United States

• The last week of April was busy for global markets in the midst of earnings season, as investors digested two key central bank decisions alongside the last of major economic indicators for the first quarter of the year.

• The upbeat mood soured on disappointed expectations for more monetary stimulus from the BoJ with Gov.Kuroda choosing to first ascertain the effects of previously implemented policies.

• U.S. economic growth slowed to just 0.5% in the first quarter, its weakest pace in a year, held back by net exports and business investment – both externally-exposed segments of the economy.

• Consumption also slowed, but is expected to rebound on strong real income gains and continued labor market progress. Still, the recent data may delay the next Fed hike until later this summer, but is unlikely to derail the Fed’s plans to continue normalizing monetary policy this year.


• After four consecutive months of expansion, Canadian economic growth took a break in February
(-0.1% m/m), but remains on track to exceed 3.0% in the first quarter of 2016.

• Widespread improvement in small business confidence in April hints that the Canadian economic recovery may be gaining some traction at the start of the second quarter.

• While there may be a number of factors behind the slowdown in global trade growth since the financial crisis, the rise and persistence of protectionist measures is surely not helping boost global trade.

For further information, please contact:
John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446