TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – November 20

Highlights of the Week – November 20

United States
• It was an eventful week across financial markets, with a plethora of economic data, Fed speeches, and political developments keeping investors busy.
• Domestic economic data was robust and beat expectations. Following on hurricane-induced weakness previously retail sales, housing starts and industrial production get a significant boost from rebuilding efforts in October. Recent data suggests that GDP growth was over 3% in Q3 and is tracking near 3% during Q4 — helping reduce economic slack.
• Diminishing slack should provide comfort for the Fed to raise rates in December — a view highlighted by several FOMC members this week. The hike is further supported by recent CPI and PPI data which was stronger than expected.

• Economic indicators this week remained consistent with our view that economic activity is holding at an above trend pace in the second half of 2017.
• Headline inflation weakened in October as energy prices reversed previous gains. Underlying inflation indicators were little changed. Nevertheless, strong economic activity and rising wage growth all suggest that inflation will trend higher.
• Downwardly revised estimates of the Canadian neutral policy rate released by the Bank of Canada suggest less room for conventional policy to offset future economic shocks or increases in financial stability risks.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446