HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK – Oct. 20

United States

• A major theme in financial markets over the past several weeks has been the swift appreciation of the U.S. dollar. Measured against major currencies on a trade-weighted basis, the U.S. dollar has risen by more than 7.5% over the last three months.
• While a higher dollar is likely to worsen the trade deficit, the net effect of a higher dollar on U.S. economic growth is much less clear. Cheaper imports leave more money in U.S. consumers’ pockets; money that can then be spent on other goods and services.
• Fed Minutes from the September 16th-17th meeting revealed a more dovish Committee, resulting from a weakening global economy and potential implications from a further appreciation of the U.S. dollar. This re­sulted in financial markets pushing back rate hike expectations, with June and September 2015 probabilities now sitting at 20% and 62%, respectively.

Canada

• The S&P/TSX rallied temporarily following the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. However, growing fears sur­rounding the global economy and a continued slide in crude oil prices contributed to a 3% decline in Canada’s benchmark equity index for the week as a whole. The Canadian dollar was more resilient, ending the week essentially unchanged at 89 U.S. cents.
• Employment in Canada surged by 74,100 net jobs in September, with a large majority of the gains concen­trated in full-time positions (+69,300). The unemployment rate decreased to 6.8% from 7.0%.
• Housing starts edged up 0.5% (M/M) to 197,000 units in September, partially reversing August’s near 2% pullback. On a six-month moving average basis, starts are trending at an elevated 198,000 units.
• In the Bank of Canada outlook survey, firms pointed to rising U.S. demand as a key reason for improved sentiment in business activity and hiring. The balance of opinion on investment intentions moderated slightly.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area
TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5442
[email protected]