TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – Oct 5


United States

  • Headwinds to U.S. growth emanating from the soft global economic backdrop and elevated dollar were apparent in this week’s data. The advance report on U.S. international trade showed a dramatic deterioration in the merchandise trade balance in August. Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing index fell by 0.9 points to 50.2 in September – its lowest level in 28 months.
  • The employment report provided no solace, with just 142k new jobs created in September and negative revisions to the prior two months.
  • Still, domestically-oriented sectors continue to fare well, with consumer confidence, vehicle sales, and consumer spending all making strides over the past two months, with consumption expected to sustain the above-3% pace through the rest of the year. However, even with plenty of support from U.S. consumers, growth is Q3 is expected to be close to a relatively lukewarm 1.5%.


  • Markets were volatile again this week, but ended up more or less unchanged. The loonie ticked back up above 75 cents U.S.
  • The July GDP data confirmed that after shrinking in the first half of the year, Canada’s economy has come roaring back. July’s reading sets up third quarter growth for a solid 2.5% annualized.
  • The debate continues to rage regarding whether the first half of the year qualifies as a recession or not. While some temporary factors were at play, economic activity definitely contracted. For all intents and purposes, the decline was significant enough to be labeled a recession.
  • The good news is that the recession is over – by all indications Canada is experiencing a robust return to growth at present, and this is expected to persist for the immediate future.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446