TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – September 5

Highlights of the Week – September 5

United States
• Substantial positive revisions to Q2 US GDP indicated stronger momentum going into the third quarter than previously thought, with Hurricane Harvey expected to shave 0.1-0.4 ppts. off growth in Q3.
• Inflation continued to be stubbornly elusive in July but we still expect a hike by the Fed in December, given that
inflation will likely strengthen in the coming months.
• Global economies continue to strengthen alongside the US, with China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI expanding to its highest level in six months in August, led by strong foreign demand for goods.

• Hurricane Harvey is impacting Canada via higher gasoline prices and lower crude oil prices. On average, prices at the pump have jumped by 10 cents per litre this week, while the WTI-WCS spread widened by 20% to $11.75.
• Real GDP grew by 4.5% in the second quarter, marking the best 4-quarter performance since 2006. Growth of 0.3% in June provides a strong handoff for Q3.
• The CFIB Business Barometer fell for a third consecutive month in August, suggesting that the robust pace of
growth is unlikely to last.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446