TD / Canada Trust Weekly Economic Highlights – April 30


United States

  • The week started off on a soft note but sentiment improved markedly on robust earnings reports, comfort from continued central bank support, and slightly better data towards week-end.
  • Global manufacturing continues to struggle with Chinese and US indices – while remaining positive – un­able to diverge much from eurozone PMIs stuck in contractionary territory for over a year now.
  • US GDP growth disappointed at 2.5% in 13Q1, as government spending and net-exports subtracted 0.8 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively.


  • The past week saw the TSX, most commodity prices and the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar, all make up ground. However, all three still remain underwater so far in 2013. That is consistent with Canada’s economic under performance versus the United States.
  • February’s retail sales data were consistent with a more modest performance in consumer spending north of the border, as trend sales have slowed in both real and nominal terms. Moreover, the lack of pricing power at the retail level speaks to increased competition in the face of softening demand.
  • This difficult retailing environment is likely having an influence on small business confidence, which slipped further in April, according to the CFIB’s Business Barometer. Particularly since insufficient domestic de­mand is cited as the main limitation to small business growth.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area
TD Canada Trust T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446

[email protected]