TD / Canada Trust Weekly Economic Highlights – Dec. 10


United States

  • The U.S. economic data pipeline was full this week, offering a handful of data releases. The majority of releases were ahead of consensus expectations, affirming that the U.S. economy held its own during the government shutdown and beyond.
  • Non-farm payroll report was the main highlight, delivering a second month of job growth above 200K. The ISM manufacturing index, auto sales and new home sales also surprised on the upside in November.
  • The positive turn in economic data will enter into the Fed’s calculus as they plan their exit from quantitative easing (QE). However, developments on Capitol Hill are also important. Fortunately, the latest news on budget developments is modestly encouraging, raising the hopes that mutual dissatisfaction with sequestration will help the two sides broker a deal before the New Year.


  • The Bank of Canada kept the overnight rate constant at 1.00% this week, in a communiqué which was interpreted as more dovish than the last. Markets reacted swiftly and the Canadian dollar plunged to a three-year low.
  • Canada’s trade balance tipped into surplus in October, as imports fell further than exports. The trade surplus was a razor thin $75 million, up from a $303 million deficit in September.
  • Employment was solid in November, advancing by 22,000 positions, while the unemployment rate held firm at 6.9%. So far this year, employment growth has averaged 13,400 per month, down from 25,400 over the same period in 2012.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area
TD Canada Trust T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446