TD / Canada Trust Weekly Economic Highlights – Feb 4


United States

  • Domestic data releases dominate the docket this week with markets trading sideways on mixed news through Thursday, before advancing on today’s data.
  • Advance estimate of U.S. fourth-quarter output shows GDP slipping marginally into contraction. But details appear very constructive, as private domestic demand steams ahead.
  • Payrolls come in a notch below expectations, but revision to previous months solidifies the theme of ongoing job market recovery.
  • January manufacturing reports lend further credence to the idea that the soft-patch is behind us. U.S. manufacturing ISM gains almost three points, and is away from the precipice. Chinese PMI remains in slight expansion while eurozone PMI indicates the declines in activity may be coming to an end.


  • Canadian 10-year bond yields touch 2.00%, marking an 8-month high.
  • TD Economics has pushed back the first Bank of Canada rate hike to the first quarter of 2014.
  • November GDP surprises markets on the upside, growing by 0.3%.
  • Small business owners were more optimistic in January, with near-term hiring intentions at a post-recession high.


For further information, please contact:


John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area

TD Canada Trust

T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446