TD / Canada Trust Weekly Economic Highlights – July 30


United States

  • The U.S. dollar turned lower this week amid broad expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates low for a long time. The stock markets remained relatively calm, selling-off by the end of the week in anticipa­tion of next week’s flurry of data.
  • A series of housing sector data releases as well as durable goods orders, moved the economy back into the field of view this week. Existing home sales surprised on the down side, but the headline number remains robust and the housing recovery still rests on solid footing.
  • Events this week were overshadowed by the pipeline for next week: the first estimate of second quarter GDP including comprehensive revisions, non-farm payrolls, the ISM manufacturing index, as well as an FOMC meeting on Wednesday.


  • WTI crude oil prices fell back to US$105 per barrel this week, from a 16-month high of US$108 per barrel last week.
  • WCS prices, the Canadian benchmark for heavy oil, were hit slightly harder, widening the spread with WTI prices to over US$20 per barrel for the first time in 2 months.
  • Retail sales shot up 1.9% in both nominal and real terms in May. The increase in sales volumes over the past two months suggests that consumer spending will be better than originally expected during the second quarter.
  • Small business confidence jumped in July, recording the largest one-month increase in optimism in 2½ years. The index has now recouped nearly all the ground lost since the start of the year.


For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area
TD Canada Trust T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446