TD / Canada Trust Weekly Economic Highlights – June 10


United States

  • Since Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said the Fed could reduce the size of asset purchases “in the next few meetings” , volatility in financial markets has been rising.
  • This week saw this saga climax in anticipation of the U.S. payrolls report for the month of May. Yesterday the VIX volatility index registered its highest level since February.
  • With a reading of 175K, net new jobs were 12K above consensus. This is far from stellar. However, if the U.S. labor market maintains this pace, it will end the year with close to 2.3 million new jobs and it will be within striking distance of closing the employment gap opened by the recession.


  • New Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz addressed the House of Commons this week and used the opportunity to build confidence that no major shake up in the way the Bank sets monetary policy is forthcoming.
  • The Canadian economy created 95,000 net new positions in May, the strongest monthly advance in more than a decade. While the headline reading is impressive, the six-month moving average for job creation registers in at a more reasonable 19,000. The unemployment rate edged down by 0.1 percentage points to 7.1% in May.
  • Canadian exports edged down 0.2% in April, after rising for four consecutive months. Imports were up (+1.2%) and have increased in each of the first four months of 2013. As a result, the international trade deficit widened to $567 million in April. After a strong showing in Q1, we expect export activity to pull-back somewhat in Q2 as the full force of sequestration in the U.S. will be felt.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area
TD Canada Trust T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5446