TD Canada Trust provides a weekly economic highlight report that we choose to share with our clients and those who follow us. This is an easy place to stay current on the broader economic conditions in Canada and the U.S. so that you are better informed to make stronger decisions around your own real estate investments. We are always available to answer any questions or walk through your real estate investment goals for now or in the future.
- It was a solid risk-on week in Canadian financial markets, as optimism on global growth and trade lifted equities and led to a selloff in fixed income.
- The Canadian job market finally returned to earth in March, shedding a modest 7.2k jobs following outsized gains in the previous two months. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8%
- Bank of Canada governor, Stephen Poloz gave a speech in Iqaluit this week, noting the structural challenges to Canadian goods exports, but also lauding the gains in services. In comments after his speech, he noted that the recent inversion in the yield curve was an “innocent” one and not indicative in his mind of a looming recession.
- Progress on U.S.-China trade negotiations helped support risk appetite this week, with equity prices and yields up.
- February retail sales fell 0.2% month-on-month, but an upgrade to January made it more palatable. On the other hand, the job market bounced back in March (+196k), confirming that the weakness in February was but a speed bump.
- The pace of job gains is expected to slow to around 150k per month on average over the remainder of the 2019 – slower than last year, but still decent and more than sufficient to keep downward pressure on the unemployment rate.