TD Canada Trust provides a weekly economic highlight report that we choose to share with our clients and those who follow us. This is an easy place to stay current on the broader economic conditions in Canada and the U.S. so that you are better informed to make stronger decisions around your own real estate investments. We are always available to answer any questions or walk through your real estate investment goals for now or in the future.
- This was a quiet week in financial markets, with the S&P/TSX moving up 1% and the CAD almost unchanged. Oil benchmarks advanced on reassuring signs of OPEC+’s curtailment discipline.
- The week was also light on data, but a poor manufacturing sales showing served to further reinforce the moderating growth narrative and slightly impacted our Q4 GDP tracking.
- Housing data delivered a pleasant surprise, advancing 3.6% on the month. Average homes prices, however, continued to decelerate.
- December retail sales came in significantly weaker than expected, falling 1.2% m/m, with the decline being broad-based. Consumption in Q4 is now tracking around 2.6% annualized – softer than expected, but still a pretty good showing.
- The retail sales report provides a weak handoff to 2019. The fact that the government shutdown extended into January and consumer confidence retreated on the month, further reinforces the notion for a soft print in first-quarter spending and GDP.
- Core inflation remained at 2.2% (y/y) in January, where it has sat for five of the past six months. And there is little indication that it will move in either direction soon. This should provide comfort for the Fed to remain patient.