TD Canada Trust provides a weekly economic highlight report that we choose to share with our clients and those who follow us. This is an easy place to stay current on the broader economic conditions in Canada and the U.S. so that you are better informed to make stronger decisions around your own real estate investments. We are always available to answer any questions or walk through your real estate investment goals for now or in the future.
- Data this week, while mixed, confirmed that the Q2 growth rebound is on track. Existing home sales held on to recent gains while manufacturing shipments surged. On the softer side, retail sales sank and inflation eased, but remains on target at 2.0%.
- With a rebound in Q2 largely a done deal, attention shifts to third quarter growth prospects. The Bank of Canada projects a cautious 1.5% rate in Q3, implying a notable slowdown would be required to spur policy re-think from the BoC.
- Chinese economic growth slowed 6.2% y/y in the second quarter of this year, as rising trade tensions weighed on activity. Signs of wear are also showing in the U.S., where industrial output continued to grow at a slow pace in June.
- U.S. housing data remains soft. Starts eased in June, while permits dropped precipitously (-6.1% m/m), pointing to more weakness in the pipeline. That said, the services side of the economy continues to hold up well, with consumption providing a major helping hand. Retail sales rose by 0.4% in June, extending the winning streak to four straight months.
- The resilience of the American consumer suggests less urgency for the Fed to cut rates later this month. But, Fed speakers pushed back against that notion this week, emphasizing the need to get ahead of any potential weakness.