TD Canada Trust provides a weekly economic highlight report that we choose to share with our clients and those who follow us. This is an easy place to stay current on the broader economic conditions in Canada and the U.S. so that you are better informed to make stronger decisions around your own real estate investments. We are always available to answer any questions or walk through your real estate investment goals for now or in the future.
- Financial markets were relatively quiet this week. The S&P/TSX posted a modest gain, whereas OPEC+ announced an extension of the group’s oil supply cuts.
- Grabbing the bulk of the attention this week was a surprise trade surplus in May due to an impressive surge in exports.
- The shortened week also saw a decent Labour Force Survey for June, with the headline print remaining flat but the details of the report further supporting the narrative of healthy labour markets.
- News of a trade truce between the U.S. and China buoyed equity markets at the start of the week. The ceasefire put additional tariffs on hold, and there were some modest concessions on both sides.
- On the economic front, messages were decidedly mixed this week. The ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes moved lower in June, while the payroll report showed a reacceleration in hiring with 224k jobs created last month.
- Given the balance of risks, there is still a solid case for a 25- basis point “insurance” cut when the Fed meets later this month. But, insurance is likely to mean one or two rate cuts this year and not four or five as markets are pricing.