TD Canada Trust provides a weekly economic highlight report that we choose to share with our clients and those who follow us. This is an easy place to stay current on the broader economic conditions in Canada and the U.S. so that you are better informed to make stronger decisions around your own real estate investments. We are always available to answer any questions or walk through your real estate investment goals for now or in the future.
- The Canadian economy eked out a gain in August despite not firing on all cylinders. A recovery in oil and gas drove a 0.1% month-on-month rise in activity.
- Both September trade data and October’s job figures were soft. As a result, we are currently tracking Q3 growth at a roughly trend pace of 1.8% (Q/Q, annualized).
- Overall, this week’s data suggests a December rate hike is unlikely. With data dependency the guiding principle, the evolution of wage growth and household borrowing will be key triggers for the next move.
- The U.S. labor market continues to impress – churning out jobs like nobody’s business (+250k), keeping the unemployment rate near record lows (3.7%), drawing people into the labor force (participation rate up +0.2 percentage points), and pushing up wages to boot (3.1% year-on-year – the highest since 2009)
- The fly in the ointment? A fierce sell off in equity markets in October, putting in question the more than nine-year-old stock bull market. Major stock indices closed the month down, eking out only marginal gains year-to-date.
- Trade tension with China is one catalyst for market jitters. A phone call between Presidents Xi and Trump this week signals progress, but the jury is still out on whether a broader trade war can be avoided.