TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – Nov. 20


United States

  • With the U.S. slipping into its typical post payrolls data lull, the focus this week primarily squared around international data and the continued decline in the price of crude oil. At the time of writing, the front futures contract for WTI is down 4.5% for the week and currently sits just north of $75.
  • Third quarter real GDP figures showed that the euro area grew by a dismal 0.2% q/q (0.7% annualized), with Germany and France recording modest gains of 0.1% q/q and 0.3% q/q, respectively.
  • U.S. October retail sales surprised to the upside with the headline measure rising by 0.3% m/m, beating expectations which called for a slightly softer gain of 0.2% m/m. After stripping out auto sales and the recent effects from falling gasoline prices, core retail sales grew by an even stronger 0.6% m/m.


  • Crude oil prices sank to a 4-year low this week, with Brent prices hitting US$76 per barrel and WTI prices sliding to US$74 per barrel. The drop was due in large part to expectations that OPEC will not cut output targets at its meeting later this month.
  • The federal government released its Fall Fiscal Update this week. It noted that the positive impact from better economic conditions and lower interest rates than what was projected in Budget 2014 will be offset by lower oil prices and new tax relief measures for families.
  • While fiscal years 2013-14 and 2014-15 will outperform relative to the Budget, the cumulative surplus over the rest of the forecast horizon is expected to be notably lower.

For further information, please contact:
John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5442
[email protected]