TD/ Canada Trust Economic Highlights – Nov. 24


United States

  • International economic data was disappointing this week. Japan entered a technical recession in the third quarter, and euro zone and Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Indexes both decelerated this month. Dovish comments by Mario Draghi, in addition to an interest rate cut in China, helped inject some pep in markets overseas.
  • Momentum in the U.S. housing market is on the rise. Housing starts remained above the one million unit mark in October, housing permits reached a post-crisis high, and existing home sales hit their strongest level of the year.
  • Contrary to market expectations for a fall, the consumer price index (CPI) was flat on the month, with the year-over-year metric unchanged at 1.7%. Meanwhile, core CPI (ex-food, ex-energy) inflation rose from 1.7% Y/Y to 1.8%.


  • The release of real GDP for Q3 next Friday is expected show that the economy expanded in the 2.0% to 2.5% range, with September GDP increasing by a robust 0.4%.
  • Despite lower oil prices recently, growth in expected to remain in the 2.0% to 2.5% range through 2016, as the lower dollar helps mitigate the impact of lower oil prices on output. This will exceed the estimated trend growth rate of the economy.
  • Consumer prices are expected to get some relief from their current high levels, as the price at the pumps falls into next year, although the pace of income growth may also slow as export prices decline relative to import prices.

For further information, please contact:

John Maveety Manager, Residential Mortgages – Greater Ottawa Area TD Canada Trust
T: (613) 371-1984 F: (888) 899-1984 P: (866) 767-5442