TD Canada Trust provides a weekly economic highlight report that we choose to share with our clients and those who follow us. This is an easy place to stay current on the broader economic conditions in Canada and the U.S. so that you are better informed to make stronger decisions around your own real estate investments. We are always available to answer any questions or walk through your real estate investment goals for now or in the future.
- Canadian data this week was somewhat discouraging. Households ended 2018 by setting a new record for relative indebtedness. Meanwhile, February home resale data showed a 9.1% drop in sales activity, but January manufacturing sales
rebounded, up 1.4% in volume terms.
- Recent softness provides a weak starting point for our latest Quarterly Economic Forecast. We’ve downgraded our economic growth forecast for this year to 1.2%, with a modest acceleration to 1.8% in 2020.
- Contained inflation and a forecast of just a trend pace of growth suggest that the Bank of Canada has already brought its monetary policy interest rate to a neutral stance. We expect no further rate hikes.
- Our updated economic forecast anticipates a slowdown in global growth to 3.2% in 2019, roughly at trend.
- A weak handoff from 2018 and start to 2019 motivates much of the downgrades in advanced economies, while growth in emerging markets is anticipated to perk up slightly later in the year.
- Growth in the U.S. is expected to slow, but still remain at an above-trend pace this year. That said, lingering economic uncertainty could weigh further on the domestic and global outlook.