TD Canada Trust provides a weekly economic highlight report that we choose to share with our clients and those who follow us. This is an easy place to stay current on the broader economic conditions in Canada and the U.S. so that you are better informed to make stronger decisions around your own real estate investments. We are always available to answer any questions or walk through your real estate investment goals for now or in the future.
- All eyes were on Ottawa this week as the Federal Government tabled its FY2019-20 budget. The budget contained some new policy initiatives, but there was little in the way of material implications on debt trajectory, near-term economic growth, or monetary policy.
- At the same time, three provincial governments showcased their FY 2019-20 budgets, laying out plans to remain in the black (Quebec, New Brunswick) or move back into it (Saskatchewan).
- The week wasn’t light on economic data. Wholesale trade kicked off the release schedule with a decent uptick. Capping the week, however, was a disappointing retail sales showing and an unsurprising CPI inflation print.
- The Fed’s dots showed that it only expects to hike rates once more by the end of 2020, sending Treasury yields lower mid-week.
- On Friday, weakness in March manufacturing surveys in Europe, Japan, and the U.S. sent longer-term U.S. yields low enough to invert the yield curve. A yield curve inversion has historically preceded a recession by up to eight quarters.
- In a separate drama, the UK has earned a two-week extension on its Brexit deadline to April 12th. It remains to be seen if the UK’s parliament will pass the current deal reached with the EU, and so further cliffhangers are likely.